Brief one on some thoughts as to whether the players should decertify or take the deal. Sorry this sort of got up late!

Pants: The players gave every inch they should have given, 82 games was there for the owners to take 2 weeks ago. Decertify and make the owners live through taking the red pill. These aren't the owners that created the league who are causing trouble. They are johnny come late-lies who think cutting a $500M check entitles them to massive profits.

When you pay a premium for any business you have to do something new or innovative to make money because the previous gains are built in to the purchase price. How about instead of burning the relationship with the players and fans they make that same money by instituting the playoff for the 8th playoff seeds or something else that generates more money that goes to each team.

Mike: The players should make one, last-ditch attempt to get a Wednesday meeting to negotiate back a few system issues, and then accept the deal regardless. And with that said, it is very upsetting Fisher and Union Lunatic Jeffrey Kessler spoke so ill of the deal and took a constructive discussion out of the picture the other night.

Decertification sounds sexy and cool ("I thought 'treble damages' meant something musical, but it means I can get triple my money back!?"), but given it is this late in the game, the opportunity costs of a lost season with the uncertainty is too great of a risk. It is naive to think the owner's have not prepared for this situation, but to do it in November? No. My guess is a petition will be filed if it comes to that, but just like in 1995, the decertification vote would not pass once players are able to become anonymous in a voting situation. As a reminder: in 1995, over 200 players signed the petition, but only 134 ultimately voted for a decertification and the deal was ratified. Furthermore, the NFL's attempt at this flopped. There are no guarantees. And even if it is an attempt at short term leverage, I don't think it is reasonable to kill another month of the year just so tax paying teams can have a full mid level exception or complete a sign and trade, especially at the risk of the offer dropping to 47% and a hard cap (what I believe to be the owner's true goal, hence why they are offering something that is just good enough to reject).

It also makes little sense  to risk more games if there is truth to the idea that players would put the deal to a vote with some system kickbacks from the owners. They are arguing over peanuts at this point, which include system concessions for tax payers, of which there were only four teams this last season. 

Lastly, one can shove the Sherman Act and legal jargon down my throat until I pass out, but I still don't see how the offer gets any better from here, decertificiation or not. Take the deal and play ball. Too bad union lunatic Jeffrey Kessler is in the room.....

College Wolf:  The Players have made more than enough concessions.  The Hard-line Owners are mostly responsible for the mess that everyone is currently in now, and are making unreasonable demands on top of everything they have already received from the Players.  If the Players don't stand for something at some point, then where will it stop?  And if they get pushed over like this now, how will the next CBA negotiations fare?

I think they should at least begin the process of decertification. Hopefully it gives them some leverage here, and forces the Owners to come to a realization about what they are doing before it's too late.  At this point, I wouldn't feel bad about Owners losing tens of millions of dollars on debt, interest payments, and not receiving the revenue they otherwise would during a season.  They forced the Players to this ledge, so now they can live with the fallout if the Players don't acquiesce and take their crappy deal.  Yes, the Players have expenses too, and a lost season would obviously be bad (and for the fans of course!)  However, there are other ways for Players to make money, and hopefully most of them have money saved like they have said they did during the past two years.  What are the Owners going to do with their "teams" during a cancelled season? They won't have any other avenues to make their share of $4 billion dollars worth of revenue.  Serves them right for creating this mess.

Tim F- While I do not know the details of the deal, I think they players should absolutely take the deal. At this point, any other option will result them in losing massive amounts of money; moreso than if they simply took the deal. David Stern seems to be at a point where he plans to get what he wants, and he won't settle for anything less. When I hear reports that say that he is willing to dip below 50% for the players, I completely believe that he will follow through on that and get what he wants. This is likely the best the players will get. 

Also, perhaps it is just me as a fan keeping myself optimistic, but I would like to think that the players, people who play a sport for a living, are missing the game itself. I truly hope that before everything else, they are able to look past the dollar signs (not to mention the fact that they'll be filthy rich regardless) and get back to playing basketball.

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Unfortunately for anyone that still cares about the NBA, it doesn't look like the Lockout will be ending anytime soon.  In fact, it's quite possible that we'll miss the entire season.  Things have deteriorated so badly that it's looking more and more likely that the collective idiocy of the Owners and Players will squander the season, billions of dollars, and the sky-high interest, goodwill, and momentum of the NBA as we've recently known it.

And it's really quite unfortunate.

If you've got anything to add, or just want to vent about things as they currently stand, let it all go in the Livefyre Comments in this thread.  Let's hear what's on your mind!  There's no reason to hold anything back, as we won't exactly have much of anything else actually basketball related to discuss in the near future.

 

 

Via: Designed by USDirect.com

(This graphic was NOT a creation of TWB, see above link)

Those interested parties can take a quick trip through the path that has been this lockout, which since this image was last updated, has continued to spiral out of control. 

Overall, it is difficult to assess or form a basis of 'blame' here. No doubt the owners caused this and are irresponsible in their own right for presenting an unrealistic offer to their players and not bargaining in good faith. Furthermore, it is irresponsible of the players union representatives to not recognize the obvious reality of the situation: the offer will not improve and will never get to 52.5% of BRI. Their last chance to make a deal that nets them at a break even point for holding out on an extra 2.5 pts of BRI (that the union will not get) is sometime between now and next Friday, or the deadline for cancellations through mid-December.

If a deal is not agreed to at 50/50 next week, the players are making a grave mistake. But, no doubt the union will come out of their strategy meeting today ready to #StandUnited. Now, don't get me wrong here. The players have every right to want that, or to feel that way. But it will do them zero good through next week. I actually think holding out until then isn't the dumbest thing in the world, but beyond then? Moronic. (However, I will be surprised if the 50 50 offer is still on the table for the next meeting but that is neither here nor there). But, consider what the owner's BRI offer will be in early January when the players have absolutely zero choice other than to slam their tails in between their legs? 45%, 46%? If there is a lost season!? Low 40's? Inexplicable. Look, I don't care who you are, losing a year's pay will make anyone desperate, and that will be the only choice. And with reports surfacing every few days of players having a miserable time in Europe, the NBA is the only real option. Europe was always short term. If the players do not cave now, they aren't just shooting themselves in the foot, they are blowing off both of their legs and perhaps even an arm. This is a prime example of stubbornness leading to poor decision making. And I think Derek Fisher knows it. Alas.

What is more silly is Charlie Villanueva tweeting this yesterday:

"Saw a article on ESPN, the owners r asking for 50/50 spilt, sounds good, but in reality its a 46 or 47/50+ split, hell no, TOGETHER WE STAND"

2 things stand out here. 1. "50/50 spilt, sounds good." A deal at 50 50 would get ratified immediately, but we all know that. 2. Does this guy not realize that the players do not split total revenues (his inference that owners take credits off of the top)? It is called basketball. related. income. There is little to complain about here. In the NFL the players receive a sub-50 cut of total revenues as well. This is a perfect display of ignorance on the player's front. When fans understand more about this labor situation than the players you know the union is in trouble. Again, alas.

Here's hoping this thing ends rationally the way it should. Unlike what happened in the NHL. TWB favorite Alan Hahn of NY-based Newsday re-upped his comparative NHL timeline of events yesterday. It's a few months old but I recommend reading it closely to understand just how silly it is to believe in fairy tales of offer improvement. And it only contains one use of the word 'rhetoric' to boot. To summarize, the NHL players held strong on a no hard cap system, missed a season of play and pay and, shockingly, ended up with a 24% paycut and a hard cap. He posted an update to it yesterday (seemingly influenced by Twitter conversation with TWB).

This is not rocket science. The ultimate implications are obvious to millions of people worldwide. The players have the best offer they will get between now and next Friday and it isn't even a question. These small market owners are out for blood, and blood they will get. If they miss a season, compromise will not be a word used at the bargaining table. The owners probably realize their offer is just on the threshold of agreement. When the players reject it again next week and elect to miss more games, the owners will move one step closer to getting the players right where they wanted them all along: at a mid-40's% cut of BRI and a hard cap. Square one. This is why agreeing now is absolutely imperative. It is sickening how obvious this is. 

The NHL player's advice? Make a deal.  Per this nice write-up (which recieved national attention) from Jerry Zgoda, the players implore as much. The only hint of rationalization was the NHL used its time off to make rule changes, which may have made the game more exciting but was not even a remotely appropriate justification to cancel a season. "It's not worth it," said Bill Guerin (former VP of the NHL players association), who was perhaps the biggest crusader for the players' cause back then. "Get a deal done. I learned a big lesson: It's not a partnership, it's their league, and you are going to play when they want. It's not worth it to any of them to burn games or to burn an entire year. Burning a year was ridiculous."

As sickening as that may sound for fans constantly (and sometimes to a fault) behind the empty, player-driven rally cry, that is just the way it is. Don't hold out for nothing. Take the high road, get back on the court and everyone wins... even the players.

#StandUnitedforMillionsInLostWagesAndAnImmenselyWorseCBA. Good message, Sir Hunter.

UPDATE: Per the Boston Herald labor talks will resume Saturday

 

Michael Beasley has a new hobby: ballet. At least Mike is being active and staying healthy for when the season starts in 2045 after the two sides lose billions while arguing over $80 million. Makes sense. Bravo, idiots.

But first, some brief lockout thoughts that are doomed to end in longer-than-expected, incoherent rambling: It is obvious this entire thing is psychologically-based, and not reason-based. If reports of owner-issued ultimatums are true, that is the only reason we are here. The players WILL net out at 50:50, whether it is now or in January. It is all in the approach. Sort of like approaching a high-maintenance, drama-queen woman and evaluating the # of cartons of eggs shells one must walk over when approaching. It has to be delicate, yet firm and confident. You can't walk up to an uber-babe wearing overalls, taped glasses and sporting buck teeth, drop to one knee and demand she marry you "or else." The owner's approach was doomed to fail, and probably meant to fail. On that note: epic fail.

The funny thing is, if the owners approached it with a reasonable "here is a quality system that may need to be tweaked but could work for both sides' needs, based on a 50:50 split" the lockout would be over. It's all in the courtship. We are talking about some of the greatest egos in the country since Columbus sailed the ocean blue. If a lay-man doesn't respond to an ultimatum, neither will these guys. I mean, can anyone honestly tell me George Cohen, a freaking president-appointed federal mediator, condoned this idea of ultimatum from the owners? No wonder he bolted away, looking more like Seth Cohen from The O.C., with his tail between his legs. Worst negotiating tactic one can use, especially if it is incomplete, vague, unrealistic and issued in a condescending way.

One observation that is important when sifting through the rhetoric (hate that word. Can we ban it, or at least limit it to a single use per article, along with 'stident?): each time the sides have convened, the player's offer from the owners has improved. 2 weeks ago we were, allegedly, at a 47/53 split (50/50 being informal), and a $3 million MLE. Now we are at a 50% formal BRI proposal and a $5 million MLE, among other system improvements. Reading through the lines, the players holding out IS having its benefit in these negotiations. The question is, at what point does the 'investment' of holding out become negative when factoring in opportunity cost of quality of contracts, system changes, etc. Can't be more than another month of lost games before it loses its long term value. They will have to be crafty on when to cave, but the reality is, they are getting more back each time they meet. This is important to realize as the doomsday stuff get tossed onto the interwebs. Be rational, ignore the emotion and remember that above all.

Anyhow, on to some Friday amusements courtesy of SLAM. And on a serious note, good work Beasley. Looking forward to seeing you back on the court hopefully in short order. We are glad to have you, and if you are reading this, sorry about the picture but I hope you find it as funny as the fans find this lockout. 

Move over, Yoga. Michael Beasley is here to introduce the League’s newest fitness trend: Ballet. Yup. Here’s the Star Tribune with the report: “Timberwolves forward Michael Beasley has kept busy during an extended, locked-out NBA summer when he played ball everywhere from China to Manhattan’s famed asphalt playgrounds. He has also taken up ballet to transform his body and hired a public- relations agency to improve his image. ‘I want everyone to know that I’m not this monster that they perceive,’ he said. ‘I’m a really nice guy.’ To that end, Beasley has organized what he calls an ‘All-Star Classic’ exhibition game that will be played Friday night at Osseo High School with several of his teammates and other NBA players but won’t include the star power of Kevin Love, Kevin Durant, John Wall and No. 2 overall pick Derrick Williams, all of whom originally committed to play … ‘I feel like with the lockout, the main people being hurt are the fans,’ Beasley said. ‘They’re the ones suffering the most. I just felt it was right to put on a game for my hometown fans.’ … Beasley proclaimed himself completely healthy after playing much of last season despite a recurring sprained ankle and an injured hip. He has played with childhood pal Durant and Wall in exhibition games across the country and also has incorporated elements of yoga, karate and, yes, ballet into summer workouts intended to make his body stronger, more limber and help ensure a long, productive career. He has dropped about 15 pounds after playing last season at 240 pounds. ‘I don’t really dance,’ he said. ‘I do it for the stretching.’ Does he own a tutu? ‘No, no, no, no,’ he replied. ‘I wear shorts and a shirt.’ Is this just a ploy to get on ‘Dancing With the Stars?’ ‘I don’t really consider myself a star,’ he said, ‘but if they want me to dance, I’ll dance.’”

Lastly, Michael Beasley's All-Star Classic is tonight at Osseo High School. Here is the link: 

http://www.michaelbeasleysallstarclassic.com/

Several Wolves are slated to play. Looks like Anthony Randolph and Anthony Tolliver were added today.

Through a "source," TWB was able to uncover some exclusive footage of David Stern and Derek Fisher in a FUTURE lockout negotiation...or, at least, a symbol of what the final resolution will be.

 

Fold, Derek, fold while you still can. Save your guys the cash and move on. 

Oh, and here is the NBA in 4 months to boot, the owners flying their jets and all, escaping to safety and leaving the players in the cloud:

 

To think I used to be blindy pro-owner in this debate.

no comments

Over the past few days, some TWB contributors have banded together like the NBPA to answer some burning questions that we...developed ourselves. Here are our mixed-in-tone-results. And remember....

"#StandUnited, and if in a bind always be sure to screw over your brethren by fighting a futile battle. I couldn't care less a wrecking ball is about to crush about 400 different Vasa Deferentia in about 6 months. This empty battle is soooooo worth it!" 

-NBPA Billy Hunter, overheard on 10/17/2011

1. What are your thoughts on the current state of negotiations? What should each party do next?

Pants: So Monday it appears they got very close to agreeing on a 50/50 split but once the deal wasn't sealed both sides went back into a defensive position and the owners in particular have taken a major step back. 

Next for Players - Accept the 50/50, and accept that there needs to be a rule in place that lets teams (this isn't just for the owners it is for the team and the fans) get out from under contracts that players drastically under perform. Accept 4 year contracts. Accept no sign and trade. Then sing those concessions from the mountain top. The owners instantly become the villains to the rest of the NBA fans.

Next for Owners - Stop taking the scorched earth approach every time you don't get your way. Outside of season ticket holders not many people will remember this time come next year if the league is up and running before Christmas, and if you think ticket sales are bad now they'll be terrible for the next 3-4 years if you don't have a season this year.

READ the other questions and responses by clicking READ MORE

 

There have been a myriad of reports from some high-quality, dedicated reporters graciously staking out the lockout meetings with hopes of getting a soundbite. Among the hot topics over the weekend (which I touched on before it hit the masses here) was how ludicrous it is for the owners and players to risk losing games over a dollar amount both will seemingly lose within 1-2 weeks anyways. Aside from this likely being true only to an extent there are four sociological truths worth noting as it pertains to where things stand:

1. This amateur math, to be fair to all involved, is probably only a fraction of the real snags, implications, etc affecting a deal. This is the equivalent to a fan complaining his team didn't trade for a superstar at the trade deadline. It takes two teams to make a deal.

2. However, with that said, do both sides realize the above and the degrees of losses involved? Do the people they represent? That they, as representatives of their own parties, are collectively screwing over their people by playing this ridiculous game of chicken over what currently is a dollar amount that will be out the window in less than a week? The players, having already negotiated away somewhere between 4 and 5 points of Basketball Related Income (BRI), stand to gain nothing by waiting, and also somehow lose everything by waiting. 

3. People who make more money spend more money. Relative lifestyles do not make a person immune to missing paychecks because they make 1000% more money than an average human. Sure, it helps a lot, but they also spend 1000% more as well. Their $5 million house is not any cheaper on a monthly basis in relative terms when income is out the window.

3. That, far more importantly,  this #UnitedWeStand, "need to set up our brethren for the future," stuff is utter bulldroppings. Listen, it is admirable to say such things, but in an argument about money, money talks louder than this magnanimous fluff straight from a CW-network TV Series. We live in a 'me first' society in which, as Cat Stevens would put it, there are Planes to Catch and Bills to Pay. These guys have an average of 4-5 years to make an unimaginable-to-the-public amount of money. For each game lost, a large percentage goes away with it. Forever. Rex Chapman summed it up perfectly over Twitter: "$1.08m that lockout '98 stole from me still hasn't arrived." Put this to an anonymous vote and this deal gets ratified in less than an hour at a 50-50 split. No one cares about a player entering the league in 2019 when millions of dollars are at stake for themselves now. Nor should they. Michael Beasley absolutely 100% does not give a damn about how much money Harrison Barnes might make someday, especially when on the verge of missing 1/12th-1/6th of his income for the year for no reason. It's basic survival instinct.

To illustrate this further, understanding that the author is computing basic bar-room math, has no law degree, has not been involved in negotiations and in general is a bit aloof at times, it may be best to scale back the numbers involved to an 'average' middle-class citizen. Again, this is not intended to exactly mirror the NBA outside of a loose, somewhat flawed application of the percentages involved. This is more intended to show how a normal human might react to this situation from a financial standpoint. Again, the author realizes the implausibility of what is going to follow, so nitpickers please do us all a favor: put a paper bag over your head and walk across a tightrope between 2 forty story buildings with the rest of your annoying brethren. You get the point. Anyhow:

You are an accountant making $50,000 per year and live a pretty good lifestyle for someone making such a salary. You drive a Honda Accord, live in a 2nd or 3rd ring suburb in a $250,000 home with your wife of a similar income, have a child in 4th grade.... and a Schnauzer named Kahn.

Unfortunately due to declining profits and the recent economic collapse, your company needs to cut some costs. The Board of Directors and CEO have, rather than layoff 20% of the company workforce, decided to negotiate with a few company Vice Presidents (representing the general staffers) in an effort to come to a conclusion on how to redistribute its revenue and save jobs. They conclude over an extensive negotiation, in a move that apparently will benefit the company, to shut down work if the two sides do not come to a conclusion by the end of the month. All employees will start to miss paychecks. As further part of the negotiations, both sides (an underconsidered part of where things stand in the NBA world) decided a 9% paycut will prevent any layoffs as a start (approx equivalent to player's current BRI concessions). The Board wants to tack on two more points to that making it an 11% pay cut while the VP's say '9% is enough.' It is the final day of negotiations before checks are missed.

Your salary is now chopped to $45,500 with the 9% hit, but with 2 more points on the table may go down to as low as $44,500. The former # ($45.5k) is a 100% guaranted reduced pay the minute you start work again no matter how long the negotiations occur, with the latter ($44.5k) being the absolute floor. The VP's have already agreed to the initial hit on behalf of the company to avoid layoffs. It is already going to happen. Everyone has accepted it and indicated a willingness to get back to work at a reduced pay scale (in this example, let's also assume you can't quit this ridiculous scenario and find a new job. It's pretend!)

Now, on the final day of possible negotiations, the two sides are still arguing over these two percentage points, and as an employee you are in danger of missing an entire month's pay over what is currently a potential $1,000 swing in your favor by keeping the points. Versus the $3,791 you will lose by missing a month of pay. Meanwhile your VP's have instructed all employees to start a campaign over Twitter and Facebook to stand united for the all of the college grads who will join your company in the next decade and be subjected to the horrors of earning $45,000 per year plus benefits in a terrible economy. Please.

Yeah, I'd immediately tell my VP's they were idiots too for risking a month of my pay for an arbitrary horse and pony fluff case. I'd gladly give up the $1,000 bucks in futile opportunity cost and get back to my Excel spreadsheets. I don't care about a college grad in six years when I have a mortgage commensurate with my income to pay, groceries to buy and children to support. Neither do you. And that's ok. Disagree publicly and agree privately or whatever is needed, but that is just how the world works.

So when word breaks this afternoon that no deal is reached, the NBA Rank-and-File (another overused term throughout the lockout, along with 'rhetoric') has every right to be a little bit irked about getting screwed over by their bosses.

Maybe some day TWolves fans.  Maybe some day... no comments

I'm no genius, but it seems simple enough to me.  Give the Players 51% of ALL Total Revenues.  Then after that, figure out the new contract lengths, max salary amounts, Luxury Tax, revenue sharing amongst teams, etc etc etc.

With 51% of all revenues, the Players feel like they "won" the negotiations, and can tell all their members they get more than the Owners.  Personally, I think a 50-50 split of all total revenues is fair, but 51-49 gets things done much sooner.  There's still some ego and pride at stake here too, after all.

The players have already given away hundreds of millions over the length of a new CBA from their old deal, by going down from the previously agreed upon 57%, to the newly proposed 53%.  Going from 57% to 51% gives the Owners over $1 billion in savings over the length of a new CBA. Considering the Owners locked out the Players because they "supposedly" lost $300 million-ish dollars last season, that's not too shabby.

If the Owners insist upon 50-50 split of revenues, but under the "old rules" concerning BRI (Basketball Related Income - where they got about $400 million per year in stadium/team costs/etc "credits" off the top BEFORE splitting the rest with the Players), then a 50-50 BRI split in this situation is actually only about 47% of all Total Revenue for the Players under a new CBA.  That just doesn't seem fair to me at all.  I'm sorry, but I can understand why the Players wouldn't take that deal.  It stinks.

So yeah, split ALL Total Revenue 50-50, and then the rest of this crap shakes out quite easily (all things considered.) Considering both parties are supposedly merely only a few percentage points away, then missing any games is very very bad.  They'll end up losing more to the lockout and not having games, than they would by agreeing to a bad CBA (see: "CBA Talk: A Little Math" link below.)

But as I said above, make that happen and it's The End.  Lockout is over soon.  Games come back.  We are all happy.

If you want to read more on this matter, check out these excellent articles by quality scribes:

The Player Salaries Lost to a Lockout

CBA Talk: A Little Math

10 Lockout Questions to Chew On... Probably For a While

And as always, come discuss all this and more in the TWB Forums!

It is fascinating how quickly this lockout has turned into a loose form of reality television. The allure of instant gratification, by-the-second news, spectacularly ridiculous hyperbole, over analysis and individual thought have turned this negotiation into a glorified horse and pony circus. The way information is collected now allows the curious to all but follow a specific 'thought' of an individual, right or wrong, which spirals out of control and hits the masses with the push of button. Currently, the tone of the lockout talks is gauged by the size of David Stern's smile, or the tone of his deep New York City drawl. And if he says there is "no progress" then there must ACTUALLY be progress because his eyes were shifty when he said it, so it must be a smokescreen, a PR game or an outright lie because Billy Hunter overheard Adam Silver on his cell phone allegedly talking to an economist about a negotiating tactic and he uttered the words "50%" which was in turn was revealed through an agent's mistress as the next step in negotiations and was later refuted by the NBA League Attorney as "totally false, and simply the discount Silver wanted on the Bargaining Committee's Papa Johns order that was 45 minutes late."

Meanwhile in Boise, Idaho someone's head just exploded.

At times modern media has become analogous to a gossiping group of high school cheerleaders with the degree of undivided attention to drama, lies, scandals and speculation over a few percentage points and whether or not we can watch 10 giant men throw a rubber ball through a ring next month. Bickering aunts and familial gossip be damned. Yet, it is consumed religiously.

The dramatization of the labor negotiation is centered around, amongst other things, a revenue split of basketball related income (BRI) between millionaires and billionaires (pick a side!). It has suddenly turned into a topic worth refreshing a twitter feed every hour to see which reporter is leaking the latest sourced, yet intentionally spun, overdramatic or hyperbolized (one prominent writer's latest contained the words/phrases: Bloodied, bruised, beaten, boogeyman, windmill dunks, blockbuster barnstorming tours, stunned, 'blink for the Emperor,' bury the bodies... and that's just after 1 skim) biased piece of rhetoric that offers fans just a glistening bit of hope we will see basketball this Fall. (Oh wait, it's already Fall). We eat up even the most transparent of pieces, whether it's a leaked letter from NBPA President Derek Fisher to his Union, or a similarly crafted letter from the agents to the players overflowing with political, 'what about me?' implications.

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