The Utah pick may be a bit more complicated than it appears.

According to a couple of posters on another board, it originally was a Knicks pick that went to the Suns, and then the Jazz, and then the Sixers, and now apparently to us.

The (potentially) bad news: when the Knicks shipped it to Phoenix, it was top-22 protected. IF it retains the protection attached to it originally, there's not much chance of cashing it in next year, as the Knicks will be woeful again.

The (POTENTIALLY) REALLY GOOD news: the pick is totally without protection after next year. That could easily make it a top-10 pick in 2010.

The only question I have: does the pick retain the protection it carried the first time it was traded, i.e., from the Knicks to the Suns? Or were its restrictions changed in subsequent trades--hence the top-15 protection some have alluded to elsewhere on the board?

I'm the last when it comes to understanding the complicated rules of trades and salaries in this league (CW to the rescue!!) and I'm not even sure I followed the highly intresting path Kurosawa showed to us completely, but just from my gut feeling ...

If the Knicks initially trade one of their picks to some other team under certain conditions (e.g. protection), who can those conditions be changed without the consent of the team who initially owned the pick when it was traded to another team?

That would be just like if I would take a credit with a bank to 5% interest p.a. , then the bank would sell the debt I have with them to another bank while negotiating with this other bank that the interest I had to pay would now be 10% or 15% or 200%.

That can't be legal in real life and can't be legal in the NBA. Otherwise, every team that owns someone else's pick could sabotage this team for eternity by simply trading it again and clearing all protection on the way.

Though I might think it could be possible that intially, the Knicks consent to change the protection range was acquired because one of the intermediate teams who owned it payed some cash to the Knicks, who knows? But basically I would be shocked if a negotiated protection for a pick could be changed at the disposal of the other teams underway simply by trading it! I would never trade a draftpick anymore as a GM for the constant fear of loosing a future No.1 pick once my pick would be traded another time.

Posters on Philly's realgm board call this the "Rubik's Cube Pick" and were relieved that it was this pick and not the Sixers' own pick that was traded. Not sure what the hang-up about it is. Hope there's some adequate explanation of its precise provisions.

The complicated part of this is that it's not necessarily the Knicks' pick that will be received. For example, if the Jazz and the Knicks both receive a pick lower than 22 (unlikely), then the most favorable pick (probably the higher one) goes to the Wolves. If the Jazz are after 22 (basically, if they win more than 50 games) and the Knicks aren't, then the Jazz's pick goes to the Wolves.

However, if neither are picking after 22 and the pick goes in any year from 2010-13, it's unprotected for New York and top-15 protected for Utah I(top-15 in '10, top-17 in '11, and top-16 thereafter). If Utah is picking after 15 (basically, if they make the playoffs), then the least favorable pick (probably the lower one) goes to the Wolves.

In some of those scenarios, it's the Jazz's pick, not the Knicks', that will be traded. There were no changes in the original pick sent to Phoenix, then to Utah, then to Philly, now to the Wolves. Utah just added conditions when sending it to Philly that ensured they wouldn't lose a potential lottery pick in the Kyle Korver deal, and the Sixers included that pick so they wouldn't trade a lottery pick and two players for cap space. In all of the scenarios, the pick won't be any higher than #16.

Long story short, it appears that the highest possible pick the Wolves would end up with is in the mid-teens, no matter when they pick between now and 2013.

I feel a headache approaching ...


EDIT: Nonetheless, THX to PSR for shedding some light on this murky pick.

PSR--

One more question:

Your explanation (and thanks--it was great) seems to suggest that the pick likely will come in 2010 or later. Are there any scenarios in which the pick could be exercised next year? Let's assume the Knicks finish in the lottery; their pick would be protected because it's above 22. Would the Wolves then get Utah's picking, assuming it's lower than 15?

Kurosawa wrote:

QUOTE:
PSR--

One more question:

Your explanation (and thanks--it was great) seems to suggest that the pick likely will come in 2010 or later. Are there any scenarios in which the pick could be exercised next year? Let's assume the Knicks finish in the lottery; their pick would be protected because it's above 22. Would the Wolves then get Utah's picking, assuming it's lower than 15?

I am pretty sure I read somewhere that the only way we get it next year is if the Knicks are somehow below 22 AND the Jazz in the Top 8. Did I just say the same thing twice? Either way, the Knicks are going to suck so we won't be getting it for a while.

pagingstanleyroberts wrote:

QUOTE:
If the Jazz are after 22 (basically, if they win more than 50 games) and the Knicks aren't, then the Jazz's pick goes to the Wolves.

We're almost guaranteed to get the Jazz pick next year as originally thought. The only way the Jazz don't have one of the 8 best records in the league is if Deron Williams or Boozer get hurt.

Ok, assuming this is all correct - and I'm not sure that's the case - but if what we've said so far is right, here is the pick simplified.

2009 - Wolves get the pick if Utah OR New York finishes in the top 8 teams in the league. The pick will be #23 or higher and will come from the team with the better record (worse pick).

2010 - Wolves get the pick if Utah or New York finish in the top 13 teams in the league. The pick will be #18 or higher and will come from the team with the better record (worse pick).

By 2010 the Knicks will have surrendered their pick since it is unprotected that year. They will have either surrendered it to Utah if they finished below them, or to the Wolves if they somehow miraculously do better than the Jazz. Either way it's gone in 2009 (unlikely) or 2010 (likely)

So that means that if we still haven't gotten this pick...

In 2011 we get the pick if the Jazz finish in the Top 15

In 2012 we get the pick if the Jazz finish in the Top 14

In 2013 we get the pick if the Jazz finish in the Top 14

If none of these happen, we never get the pick. Also, I'm not sure what's up with the protection droppin in 2011 and then getting more protected in '12 and '13. That's what McHale said, but it may have been a mistake.

That's pretty much correct, according to realgm.com anyway. McHale was correct about the protection; it goes down, then up, then down again. The one thing that's incorrect is that the Wolves would get the higher of the two picks if both the Knicks and Jazz finish in the top 8. So, if the Jazz had the #28 and the Knicks get the #23, the #23 would go to the Wolves. In later years, the Wolves get the lower pick because the Knicks' pick is unprotected.

Lol so much discussion for what will probably turn out to be a very marginal pick... if we even keep it!

However, it is good to know the specifics of stuff like this. I can't dispute that.