New Simmons Lines:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071019&sportCat=nfl


HERE ARE OUR PICKS:

1. Straight picks for every game

2. Picks against the spread for every game

3. 25 money credits against the spread (Only one pick can receive more than 5 credits, up to a maximum of 10 credits for that one pick)

4. Pick of the week vs. the spread

5. Upset Special (Underdog to win outright)

6. Cajones Call - Just for fun, no points awarded for it

I'm trying to decide between going with what I think or picking the opposite. There are some lines I really like... Of course the track record is that those are the games most likely to go the other way. Decisions, decisions...

DeROK wrote:

I hear ya. I think the thing with \"going opposite\" is that you can't do it every week, because eventually your mind will subconciously start altering your picks. Just a thought.

1. Straight picks for every game

Cowboys
Ravens
Lions
Patriots
Saints
Giants
Redskins
Texans
Jets
Raiders
Seabags
Iggles
Steelers
Colts

2. Picks against the spread for every game

Vikings x5
Bills
Lions
Dolphins
Falcons
Niners x3
Redskins
Texans - POTW, Upset Special x5
Jets
Raiders x5
Seabags
Bears
Steelers x7
Colts

6. Cajones Call - Just for fun, no points awarded for it

Jets to win outright...

Straight:

Cowboys
Baltimore
Lions
Patriots
Saints
Giants
Washington
Titans
Bengals
Chiefs
Seahawks
Eagles
Steelers
Colts


Spread:

Vikings +9.5
Buffalo +3
Lions -2
Patriots -16.5
Falcons +9
Giants -9
Washington -9
Texans +1
Jets +6
Chiefs -3
Rams +8 Cajones (Rams to win outright!)
Bears +5 Upset Special
Steelers -3.5 PotW
Colts -3


Money:

Steelers x10
Colts x5
Pats x5
Texans x3
Chiefs x2

I'm going to ride the \"pick the opposite\" pony until it hurts me. Last week was just too good to abandon it. However, there are four games that I'm going to pick the way I think it will go, simply because I believe that there are four teams in the league that are in a class of their own - New England, Indy, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. From those four, I think it's a pretty big drop off to the rest of the league. So I'll pick those right and also put the \"money\" on them. The straight picks will be legit, but the rest is all the opposite.

Straight:

Dallas
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
New England
New Orleans
New York Giants
Washington
Tennessee
Cincinatti
Oakland
Seattle
Chicago
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis


Vs. Spread:

Dallas -9.5
Buffalo +3
Detroit -2
New England -16.5
New Orleans -9
San Fransisco +9
Washington -9
Houston +1
Cincinatti -6
Oakland -3
St. Louis +8
Philadelphia -5
Pittsburgh -3.5
Indianapolis -3


Money:

Pittsburgh x 10
New England x 5
Indianapolis x 5
Dallas x 5


CW was right about your mind starting to play tricks on you when you pick the opposite. For example, with the G-Men and San Fran. When somebody throws me a ton of points, I'm very apt to take them. So would I normally take San Fran? However, since I won so big last week, it sort of opened my eyes that sometimes no matter how many points their giving, it's not hard for a good team to beat a bad one by a touchdown and a field goal. So that would make me more apt to pick the Giants?

Would my normal gut reaction to take the points actually be wrong, but because picking opposite has changed me, now my gut says to take the Giants which is right, only now I'm doing the opposite of my gut reaction which has become good, and I'll end up losing now. Did that make any sense?

DeROK wrote:



Yeah dude, it makes sense. That's why you really should only whip out the \"pulling the opposite\" when you don't even expect to do it yourself. I'm obviously not hating on you here, just playing devil's opposite. Since you are already picking the four \"locks\" (in your opinion) that's already not picking opposites there. Also, I don't think you can fool your subconcious when you are knowingly picking opposites on more than one occasion. You know what I'm sayin? Keep in mind, I'm not saying this is wrong or anything at all. Essentially your strategy is picking the \"locks\" with some minor trickery for the remaining games, rather than truly picking opposite of what you thought. The one time I did it I switched every game. However, that was two seasons ago and didn't have the powerhouse Colts and Pats of this season. Plus, I don't think the other remaining teams were as similarily crappy.

I'm not saying you shouldn't do this, it's certainly viable... especially if you keep doing well. I've only went on so long because I am interested by the pysche of gambling. Once again, don't think I'm hatin or anything like that.

Also Derok, you forgot your PotW, Upset Special, and Cajones.

I assume your PotW is Pittsburgh?

Yeah, I actually just realized that and came back here to do it. A little late though.

My potw was Pittsburgh and my Upset Special was Chicago. Cajones call was New England.

I know it's a little after the fact, but hopefully you'll take my word on it. Anyway, Chicago was the only underdog I straight picked, so that hopefully validates that a little bit.

Whoops. Looking back Tampa Bay was also an underdog. I didn't even realize that. I assumed they'd be favored.

DeROK wrote:

No problem here, your word is good with me.

Ha! I'm an idiot.

I realized earlier today that I forgot to do it but wasn't by a computer. So I made the picks in my head off of what I thought I picked.

I went with Philly -5 in the picks! How could I take Chicago? So I doubled my points on that line, which I won zero off of! 0 x 2 = 0

I guess it will count as a correct pick in my tally, but I won't take any points.

DeROK wrote:
Haha, that's kinda funny. Bummer though.