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TOPIC: how will the young guys turn out?

how will the young guys turn out? 5 years 8 months ago #2157

According to their stats, here are some possible glimpses of the types of players they might become. Stats from basketball-reference.com

Rashad McCants - J.R. Smith, Quentin Richardson, Harold Miner, Gerald Green, Richard Hamilton

Sebastian Telfair - DaJuan Wagner, Mike Bibby, Terrell Brandon, Kevin Johnson, Tony Parker

Randy Foye - Anthony Peeler, Vinny Del Negro, Vernon Maxwell, LaBradford Smith

Craig Smith - George Lynch, Ryan Gomes, Josh Howard, Ernie Grunfeld, Mitchell Butler

Ryan Gomes - Udonis Haslem, Kenny Thomas, Matt Harpring, Desmond Mason, Ernie Grunfeld

Gerald Green - Lamond Murray, Richard Hamilton, Purvis Short, Peja Stojakovic, Harold Miner

Al Jefferson - Shawn Kemp, Vlade Divac, Emeka Okafor, Brian Grant, Tim Thomas

These numbers were compiled based on their stats and the similarity between those stats and those of other players at the same age. For comparison's sake, here is the All-NBA team and their similar players during the early stages of their careers:

Kobe Bryant - Tracy McGrady, Carmelo Anthony, Ron Artest, Michael Jordan, Mark Aguirre

Tim Duncan - Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal, Patrick Ewing, Bob Lanier

Steve Nash - Matt Maloney, Kenny Smith, Mark Price, Chauncey Billups, Andrew Toney

Dirk Nowitzki - Tim Thomas, Brad Daugherty, Luol Deng, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kevin Garnett

Amare Stoudemire - Chris Bosh, Elton Brand, Shawn Kemp, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Jeff Ruland

Surprisingly, it seems like the guy with the second-highest (or highest) potential is Telfair. It seems like Telfair and Jefferson's best chances are to be perennial all-stars, guys like Foye, Green, and McCants upside is more likely to be 2nd or 3rd options on good teams, while Gomes and Smith have a good chance to be good role players.
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Re:how will the young guys turn out? 5 years 8 months ago #2165

  • DeROK
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That's actually pretty interesting. How did you come up with those lists? Did you yourself compare the stats or is there a program on the site that does this?
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Re:how will the young guys turn out? 5 years 8 months ago #2167

There's a formula that does it for every player, depending on how much they played that year. They compare stats for players who had a similar season at the same age (the comparison I used) and those who had just a similar season. If a player doesn't play much, they don't do it (McCants' second year isn't on there and Green's first year isn't either).

This link explains the formula: www.basketball-reference.com/about/similar.html
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