Columnists

Sonia

Sonia Grover started her Wolves site, "I Heart KG", in 2006. In the wake of the big trade, she moved over to TWolves Blog and brought her column,
"Wolves Daily News"
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DeROK

Derek Hanson, the founder of TWolves Blog, delivers his optimistic and often inspiring take on the Wolves in his column,
"DeROK's One Shot"
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CW

Dave Kelsey, life-long Wolves fan, season ticket holder, and forum post champion gives his humorous take on the Wolves and life in general in
"Club Seating with College Wolf"
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Jeremy

Jeremy Knutson packed up his stuff from the Old Wolves Logo, drove over to the TWolves Blog, unloaded the car, and now invites you to come along for a ride through the NBA in his
 "Hoop De Ville"
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Rob&Neil

Rob Brewer and Neil Olstad launched the first-ever Minnesota Timberwolves podcast back in 2007. After acheiving critical acclaim with "The Kissing Marney Gellner Show", the duo decided bring their act to TWolves Blog.
 "Timberwolves Today"

Jon

Jon Marthaler considers Mark Madsen to be the absolute height of comedy - high praise, since he's been observing Timberwolf follies for almost two decades. When not watching Mad Dog brick free throws, he writes at TNABACG. Now you can find him here on  TWolves Blog with his column,
"Both Teams Played Hard"
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Latest Forum Posts

Jon Marthaler's Artilcles
Training Camp: Not Quite What They Were Planning? E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Thursday, 02 October 2008

We're a couple of days into training camp, and with the likely roster at least somewhat finalized, I thought that it was time to take a look at the new edition of the Timberwolves.

That said, two days into training camp, we hardly know everything about the team.  So, in the interest of brevity, we're taking a page out of the book Not Quite What I Was Planning: Six-Word Memoirs by Writers Famous and Obscure , and taking a look at the Wolves roster - with six words per player.

Rashad McCants: Put up or shut up. Now.
 
Sebastian Telfair: Time to produce... or ride pine.

Randy Foye: Can he be successful at PG?

Craig Smith: Dude, grow a couple of inches.

Ryan Gomes
: Important off-season re-signing... yet kinda forgotten.

Rodney Carney: Everyone says: why isn't he better?

Brian Cardinal: I hated this guy at Purdue.

Corey Brewer: The sound of Brewer's off-season: clank!

Al Jefferson: Oh, no!  PLEASE, NOT THE KNEES!

Chris Richard
: Well, there's room in Sioux Falls.

Mike Miller: Biggest acquisition.  So, Mike: No pressure!

Jason Collins: (This statement ruined by golf cart.)

Mark Madsen: HUSTLE RUN HUSTLE EFFORT FAIL BENCH

Kevin Love: Miller - no pressure, compared to Love.

Calvin Booth: Still tall.  Still old.  Still unproductive.

Kevin Ollie: Backup to the backup's backup PG.


And of course, we also have the overall theme for the season: Better... But They'd Have To Be.


 
My Reaction to the Memphis Trade E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Saturday, 28 June 2008

I've had a couple of days to digest the Kevin Love trade, and the one thing I can't escape is this: take a look at the Wolves' roster in 2006-07.

2006-2007 Roster (Player - Salary)      

  • Kevin Garnett - $21,000,000
  • Mark Blount - 7,288,165
  • Ricky Davis - 6,364,400
  • Troy Hudson - 5,603,000
  • Marko Jaric - 5,525,000
  • Mike James - 5,215,000
  • Trenton Hassell - 4,350,000
  • Eddie Griffin - 2,700,000
  • Randy Foye - 2,448,240
  • Mark Madsen - 2,210,000
  • Rashad McCants - 1,653,720
  • Justin Reed - 1,300,000
  • Bracey Wright - 664,209
  • Craig Smith - 412,718

(Click Read More... to find out where I'm going with this...)

Last Updated ( Saturday, 28 June 2008 )
Read more...

 
Fact-Checking Rashad McCants E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Tuesday, 24 June 2008
Earlier today, our own SG reported that Rashad McCants still isn't particularly pleased at being moved into the "sixth man" role last season.  The quote from McCants:
This past year after working extremely hard to recover from microfracture surgury, I found myself coming of the bench being the sixth man and the second leading scorer. The only bad part about it was that I could have been twice as productive with more minutes. I would have been able to meet my individual goals, we could have won more games, and I'd be on my way to being a respected player in the NBA.

Naturally, I immediately went over to basketball-reference.com to check out this assertion.  The results: I think McCants is misremembering his season.  Here's what I found:

1) McCants's minutes barely dipped at all after being moved to sixth man.
The change was made right around February 1 of last season.  McCants had started 24 of 40 games up to that point, including 11 in a row; he wouldn't start again after that date.  Hence, this is the obvious dividing line between the two halves of the season.  And what the numbers show is this: Before the move, McCants was averaging 28.1 minutes per game.  After coming off the bench, he averaged 25.7 minutes per game.  Somehow, I don't think that extra two minutes, twenty seconds per game was really enough time for McCants to change much.

2) McCants wasn't any less - or more - effective coming off the bench.
In the first half of the season, when he was starting regularly, McCants averaged 15 points per game, or 0.53 points per minute.  As the sixth man, he averaged 14.7 points per game - or 0.57 points per minute.  This extremely small fluctuation in points per minute can be explained by two things: as the sixth man, McCants shot slightly more (0.482 FGA/min, versus 0.455 FGA/min in the first half) and made a slightly higher percentage of his shots (46.4% from the field, vs. 44.4%).  In other words, he was almost exactly the same player in either role.

3) There's no evidence that more minutes would have helped anything.
Let's put it this way: McCants had a PER of 14.65 last season, and John Hollinger normalizes that statistic so that 15.00 is the league average.  He wasn't a future superstar stuck on the bench - he was a league-average shooting guard.  Playing McCants 10% more minutes would, for the most part, have meant 10% more points - not twice the productivity.

Basically, the move to sixth man meant for McCants that he missed out on the first two minutes of the game.  After that, he was a regular part of the rotation; even after the move, he only played less than 20 minutes in a game seven times in 35 games, and nine times in those 35 he played more than 30 minutes.

I appreciate that McCants has confidence in his own abilities; I think most NBA players believe that they could help the team, if only they could play more.  However, I'm not sure there's any evidence that McCants has much right to complain - not only did he see the floor almost as often after the move as before, he didn't do anything either before or after the move to convince the team that it had made a mistake. 


 
Timberwolves Draft Lottery History E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Tuesday, 20 May 2008
(Note: This article appeared in this space on April 17, but is being reposted today, for obvious reasons.)

There are several great truisms of life in Minnesota: it will always snow after you're ready for spring.  It will always rain the weekend you pick to go up to the cabin.  And the Timberwolves will always lose in the draft lottery.

After a 22-60 season, the Wolves are back in the lottery for the fourth consecutive year.  It's Minnesota's 11th chance to grab the brass ring, and things have not gone well in the past.  The stretch most fans remember runs from 1992-95, when the Timberwolves had the worst or second-worst record in the league every year, and ended up with a top-three pick just once.  A trip down memory lane:

1992: Minnesota has the league's worst record, but Orlando (second-worst) and Charlotte (tied for seventh-worst) come out of the ping-pong ball hopper before the Timberwolves.  Orlando gets Shaquille O'Neal; Charlotte gets Alonzo Mourning.  The Wolves are stuck with Christian Laettner.  Here's the thing: this is, by far, Minnesota's greatest lottery success - it's the only time they've "won" the lottery and been one of the top three picks.

1993: Minnesota has the league's second-worst record, behind only abysmal 11-71 Dallas.  Incredibly, Orlando (41-41 that year, out of the playoffs only on a tiebreaker) wins the first pick again, despite being tied for the league's 14th-best record.  Philadelphia (fifth-worst) and Golden State (sixth-worst) also come out of the hat ahead of Dallas and Minnesota, a result so patently unfair that the league changes the lottery system the following year to weight it more heavily in favor of the worst teams.

1994: Minnesota is tied with Milwaukee and Detroit for the league's second-worst record, behind only Dallas.  Milwaukee wins the first pick and gets Glenn Robinson; Detroit gets the third pick and drafts Grant Hill.  Dallas comes second, and gets Jason Kidd.  Minnesota ends up fourth and drafts Donyell Marshall... one spot ahead of Juwan Howard.  (Talk about nothing going right.)

1995: For the fourth consecutive year, the Wolves are bottom-drawer, finishing once again tied for the second-worst record in the league, this time with Washington.  Golden State, fifth-worst, wins the lottery; the Clippers, the worst team,  get the second pick; and Philadelphia, fourth-worst, gets the third pick.  With Washington winning the tiebreaker to pick fourth, the Wolves are left to pick fifth.  Luckily, that pick turns into Kevin Garnett.


Ultimately, the stats look like this: 10 trips to the lottery.  Zero first picks.  Zero second picks.  Zero times moving up in the draft.

Do you ever ask yourself, "What are the odds?"  By my calculations, using the historical probabilities available here , I examined Minnesota's odds of both never moving into the top three, and moving down at least two spots each year they belonged in the top three.  The results showed that the answer to the question "What are the odds?" is right around 40-1 against.

Heck, in their entire history, not only have they never moved up, they've managed to avoid moving down just four times (7th in 1991, 5th in 1996, 14th in 2005 - when they couldn't move down - and 6th in 2006).

Adding insult to injury: in 2007, Minnesota finished the season tied with Portland for the league's sixth-worst record, giving both teams the same chance of moving up.  The Blazers won the lottery and selected Greg Oden first.  The Wolves ended up picking seventh.

This year, the draft lottery is on May 20.  The Timberwolves will have the third-best chance of moving up to #1, along with Memphis.  Their chances of moving to #2 or staying at #3 are virtually the same. 

But ultimately, they have the best chance to move down, statistically speaking.  Knowing the team's history... I wonder who might still be left at #6?

 
Draft Lottery History: Look Back in Horror E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Thursday, 17 April 2008
(Note: When not reliving painful memories here, Jon Marthaler can be found weeping over the past at TNABACG .)

There are several great truisms of life in Minnesota: it will always snow after you're ready for spring.  It will always rain the weekend you pick to go up to the cabin.  And the Timberwolves will always lose in the draft lottery.

After a 22-60 season, the Wolves are back in the lottery for the fourth consecutive year.  It's Minnesota's 11th chance to grab the brass ring, and things have not gone well in the past.  The stretch most fans remember runs from 1992-95, when the Timberwolves had the worst or second-worst record in the league every year, and ended up with a top-three pick just once.  A trip down memory lane:

1992: Minnesota has the league's worst record, but Orlando (second-worst) and Charlotte (tied for seventh-worst) come out of the ping-pong ball hopper before the Timberwolves.  Orlando gets Shaquille O'Neal; Charlotte gets Alonzo Mourning.  The Wolves are stuck with Christian Laettner.  Here's the thing: this is, by far, Minnesota's greatest lottery success - it's the only time they've "won" the lottery and been one of the top three picks.

1993: Minnesota has the league's second-worst record, behind only abysmal 11-71 Dallas.  Incredibly, Orlando (41-41 that year, out of the playoffs only on a tiebreaker) wins the first pick again, despite being tied for the league's 14th-best record.  Philadelphia (fifth-worst) and Golden State (sixth-worst) also come out of the hat ahead of Dallas and Minnesota, a result so patently unfair that the league changes the lottery system the following year to weight it more heavily in favor of the worst teams.

1994: Minnesota is tied with Milwaukee and Detroit for the league's second-worst record, behind only Dallas.  Milwaukee wins the first pick and gets Glenn Robinson; Detroit gets the third pick and drafts Grant Hill.  Dallas comes second, and gets Jason Kidd.  Minnesota ends up fourth and drafts Donyell Marshall... one spot ahead of Juwan Howard.  (Talk about nothing going right.)

1995: For the fourth consecutive year, the Wolves are bottom-drawer, finishing once again tied for the second-worst record in the league, this time with Washington.  Golden State, fifth-worst, wins the lottery; the Clippers, the worst team,  get the second pick; and Philadelphia, fourth-worst, gets the third pick.  With Washington winning the tiebreaker to pick fourth, the Wolves are left to pick fifth.  Luckily, that pick turns into Kevin Garnett.


Ultimately, the stats look like this: 10 trips to the lottery.  Zero first picks.  Zero second picks.  Zero times moving up in the draft.

Do you ever ask yourself, "What are the odds?"  By my calculations, using the historical probabilities available here , I examined Minnesota's odds of both never moving into the top three, and moving down at least two spots each year they belonged in the top three.  The results showed that the answer to the question "What are the odds?" is right around 40-1 against.

Heck, in their entire history, not only have they never moved up, they've managed to avoid moving down just four times (7th in 1991, 5th in 1996, 14th in 2005 - when they couldn't move down - and 6th in 2006).

Adding insult to injury: in 2007, Minnesota finished the season tied with Portland for the league's sixth-worst record, giving both teams the same chance of moving up.  The Blazers won the lottery and selected Greg Oden first.  The Wolves ended up picking seventh.

This year, the draft lottery is on May 20.  The Timberwolves will have the third-best chance of moving up to #1, along with Memphis.  Their chances of moving to #2 or staying at #3 are virtually the same. 

But ultimately, they have the best chance to move down, statistically speaking.  Knowing the team's history... I wonder who might still be left at #6?

 
A Place on the Lower End of History E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Friday, 04 April 2008

(Note: When not discussing failure here, Jon Marthaler can be found living it at TNABACG.)

The Timberwolves have just eight games to play in what is certainly their worst season in quite some time.  The team sits at 19-55 for the year, thus guaranteeing that for the first time since 1996 (and not counting the shortened lockout year), Minnesota will finish with fewer than 30 wins.

With that in mind, let's take a look at Minnesota's goals for the end of the season - and just where in team history this team could end up ranking.

More after the jump... 

Read more...

 
The Timberwolves and the Second Round E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Friday, 22 February 2008

(Note: When not pontificating about the NBA draft, Jon Marthaler can be found pontificating about nothing special at TNABACG.)

As part of yesterday's Gerald Green trade, the Timberwolves received Houston's second-round pick in 2010.  On the one hand, an extra draft pick can't be a bad thing, especially when the Wolves picked it up for dropping a player that didn't figure into their plans anyway; on the other hand, Minnesota doesn't exactly have a history of getting value out of its second-round picks.

With that in mind, I thought it might be time to take a look at Minnesota's second-round draft history. 

(Read more below...)

Read more...

 
Minnesota's Top Five All-Star Game Moments E-mail
Posted by Jon Marthaler   
Saturday, 16 February 2008

(When not rambling on about the Timberwolves, Jon Marthaler can be found at TNABACG , rambling on about Minnesota sports of all stripes.)

It's All-Star Weekend, and we're just a few hours away from All-Star Saturday Night.  With that in mind, it's a good time to look back at All-Star games past, filtered through the blue lenses of the Timberwolves fan.

Read on for more...

Read more...

 

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