There have been a myriad of reports from some high-quality, dedicated reporters graciously staking out the lockout meetings with hopes of getting a soundbite. Among the hot topics over the weekend (which I touched on before it hit the masses here) was how ludicrous it is for the owners and players to risk losing games over a dollar amount both will seemingly lose within 1-2 weeks anyways. Aside from this likely being true only to an extent there are four sociological truths worth noting as it pertains to where things stand:

1. This amateur math, to be fair to all involved, is probably only a fraction of the real snags, implications, etc affecting a deal. This is the equivalent to a fan complaining his team didn't trade for a superstar at the trade deadline. It takes two teams to make a deal.

2. However, with that said, do both sides realize the above and the degrees of losses involved? Do the people they represent? That they, as representatives of their own parties, are collectively screwing over their people by playing this ridiculous game of chicken over what currently is a dollar amount that will be out the window in less than a week? The players, having already negotiated away somewhere between 4 and 5 points of Basketball Related Income (BRI), stand to gain nothing by waiting, and also somehow lose everything by waiting. 

3. People who make more money spend more money. Relative lifestyles do not make a person immune to missing paychecks because they make 1000% more money than an average human. Sure, it helps a lot, but they also spend 1000% more as well. Their $5 million house is not any cheaper on a monthly basis in relative terms when income is out the window.

3. That, far more importantly,  this #UnitedWeStand, "need to set up our brethren for the future," stuff is utter bulldroppings. Listen, it is admirable to say such things, but in an argument about money, money talks louder than this magnanimous fluff straight from a CW-network TV Series. We live in a 'me first' society in which, as Cat Stevens would put it, there are Planes to Catch and Bills to Pay. These guys have an average of 4-5 years to make an unimaginable-to-the-public amount of money. For each game lost, a large percentage goes away with it. Forever. Rex Chapman summed it up perfectly over Twitter: "$1.08m that lockout '98 stole from me still hasn't arrived." Put this to an anonymous vote and this deal gets ratified in less than an hour at a 50-50 split. No one cares about a player entering the league in 2019 when millions of dollars are at stake for themselves now. Nor should they. Michael Beasley absolutely 100% does not give a damn about how much money Harrison Barnes might make someday, especially when on the verge of missing 1/12th-1/6th of his income for the year for no reason. It's basic survival instinct.

To illustrate this further, understanding that the author is computing basic bar-room math, has no law degree, has not been involved in negotiations and in general is a bit aloof at times, it may be best to scale back the numbers involved to an 'average' middle-class citizen. Again, this is not intended to exactly mirror the NBA outside of a loose, somewhat flawed application of the percentages involved. This is more intended to show how a normal human might react to this situation from a financial standpoint. Again, the author realizes the implausibility of what is going to follow, so nitpickers please do us all a favor: put a paper bag over your head and walk across a tightrope between 2 forty story buildings with the rest of your annoying brethren. You get the point. Anyhow:

You are an accountant making $50,000 per year and live a pretty good lifestyle for someone making such a salary. You drive a Honda Accord, live in a 2nd or 3rd ring suburb in a $250,000 home with your wife of a similar income, have a child in 4th grade.... and a Schnauzer named Kahn.

Unfortunately due to declining profits and the recent economic collapse, your company needs to cut some costs. The Board of Directors and CEO have, rather than layoff 20% of the company workforce, decided to negotiate with a few company Vice Presidents (representing the general staffers) in an effort to come to a conclusion on how to redistribute its revenue and save jobs. They conclude over an extensive negotiation, in a move that apparently will benefit the company, to shut down work if the two sides do not come to a conclusion by the end of the month. All employees will start to miss paychecks. As further part of the negotiations, both sides (an underconsidered part of where things stand in the NBA world) decided a 9% paycut will prevent any layoffs as a start (approx equivalent to player's current BRI concessions). The Board wants to tack on two more points to that making it an 11% pay cut while the VP's say '9% is enough.' It is the final day of negotiations before checks are missed.

Your salary is now chopped to $45,500 with the 9% hit, but with 2 more points on the table may go down to as low as $44,500. The former # ($45.5k) is a 100% guaranted reduced pay the minute you start work again no matter how long the negotiations occur, with the latter ($44.5k) being the absolute floor. The VP's have already agreed to the initial hit on behalf of the company to avoid layoffs. It is already going to happen. Everyone has accepted it and indicated a willingness to get back to work at a reduced pay scale (in this example, let's also assume you can't quit this ridiculous scenario and find a new job. It's pretend!)

Now, on the final day of possible negotiations, the two sides are still arguing over these two percentage points, and as an employee you are in danger of missing an entire month's pay over what is currently a potential $1,000 swing in your favor by keeping the points. Versus the $3,791 you will lose by missing a month of pay. Meanwhile your VP's have instructed all employees to start a campaign over Twitter and Facebook to stand united for the all of the college grads who will join your company in the next decade and be subjected to the horrors of earning $45,000 per year plus benefits in a terrible economy. Please.

Yeah, I'd immediately tell my VP's they were idiots too for risking a month of my pay for an arbitrary horse and pony fluff case. I'd gladly give up the $1,000 bucks in futile opportunity cost and get back to my Excel spreadsheets. I don't care about a college grad in six years when I have a mortgage commensurate with my income to pay, groceries to buy and children to support. Neither do you. And that's ok. Disagree publicly and agree privately or whatever is needed, but that is just how the world works.

So when word breaks this afternoon that no deal is reached, the NBA Rank-and-File (another overused term throughout the lockout, along with 'rhetoric') has every right to be a little bit irked about getting screwed over by their bosses.

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I'm no genius, but it seems simple enough to me.  Give the Players 51% of ALL Total Revenues.  Then after that, figure out the new contract lengths, max salary amounts, Luxury Tax, revenue sharing amongst teams, etc etc etc.

With 51% of all revenues, the Players feel like they "won" the negotiations, and can tell all their members they get more than the Owners.  Personally, I think a 50-50 split of all total revenues is fair, but 51-49 gets things done much sooner.  There's still some ego and pride at stake here too, after all.

The players have already given away hundreds of millions over the length of a new CBA from their old deal, by going down from the previously agreed upon 57%, to the newly proposed 53%.  Going from 57% to 51% gives the Owners over $1 billion in savings over the length of a new CBA. Considering the Owners locked out the Players because they "supposedly" lost $300 million-ish dollars last season, that's not too shabby.

If the Owners insist upon 50-50 split of revenues, but under the "old rules" concerning BRI (Basketball Related Income - where they got about $400 million per year in stadium/team costs/etc "credits" off the top BEFORE splitting the rest with the Players), then a 50-50 BRI split in this situation is actually only about 47% of all Total Revenue for the Players under a new CBA.  That just doesn't seem fair to me at all.  I'm sorry, but I can understand why the Players wouldn't take that deal.  It stinks.

So yeah, split ALL Total Revenue 50-50, and then the rest of this crap shakes out quite easily (all things considered.) Considering both parties are supposedly merely only a few percentage points away, then missing any games is very very bad.  They'll end up losing more to the lockout and not having games, than they would by agreeing to a bad CBA (see: "CBA Talk: A Little Math" link below.)

But as I said above, make that happen and it's The End.  Lockout is over soon.  Games come back.  We are all happy.

If you want to read more on this matter, check out these excellent articles by quality scribes:

The Player Salaries Lost to a Lockout

CBA Talk: A Little Math

10 Lockout Questions to Chew On... Probably For a While

And as always, come discuss all this and more in the TWB Forums!

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It is fascinating how quickly this lockout has turned into a loose form of reality television. The allure of instant gratification, by-the-second news, spectacularly ridiculous hyperbole, over analysis and individual thought have turned this negotiation into a glorified horse and pony circus. The way information is collected now allows the curious to all but follow a specific 'thought' of an individual, right or wrong, which spirals out of control and hits the masses with the push of button. Currently, the tone of the lockout talks is gauged by the size of David Stern's smile, or the tone of his deep New York City drawl. And if he says there is "no progress" then there must ACTUALLY be progress because his eyes were shifty when he said it, so it must be a smokescreen, a PR game or an outright lie because Billy Hunter overheard Adam Silver on his cell phone allegedly talking to an economist about a negotiating tactic and he uttered the words "50%" which was in turn was revealed through an agent's mistress as the next step in negotiations and was later refuted by the NBA League Attorney as "totally false, and simply the discount Silver wanted on the Bargaining Committee's Papa Johns order that was 45 minutes late."

Meanwhile in Boise, Idaho someone's head just exploded.

At times modern media has become analogous to a gossiping group of high school cheerleaders with the degree of undivided attention to drama, lies, scandals and speculation over a few percentage points and whether or not we can watch 10 giant men throw a rubber ball through a ring next month. Bickering aunts and familial gossip be damned. Yet, it is consumed religiously.

The dramatization of the labor negotiation is centered around, amongst other things, a revenue split of basketball related income (BRI) between millionaires and billionaires (pick a side!). It has suddenly turned into a topic worth refreshing a twitter feed every hour to see which reporter is leaking the latest sourced, yet intentionally spun, overdramatic or hyperbolized (one prominent writer's latest contained the words/phrases: Bloodied, bruised, beaten, boogeyman, windmill dunks, blockbuster barnstorming tours, stunned, 'blink for the Emperor,' bury the bodies... and that's just after 1 skim) biased piece of rhetoric that offers fans just a glistening bit of hope we will see basketball this Fall. (Oh wait, it's already Fall). We eat up even the most transparent of pieces, whether it's a leaked letter from NBPA President Derek Fisher to his Union, or a similarly crafted letter from the agents to the players overflowing with political, 'what about me?' implications.

CLICK READ MORE TO CONTINUE

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News broke tonight that yet another agent-written letter was sent to the players imploring them to not concede on the owner's demands. This is of course, frustrating news for many. The last thing this negotiation needs is a third party throwing a wrench in things like the random Singapore sub plot in Pirates of the Caribbean 3. Anyhow, here is the link to the letter that was sent. However, through a personal connection I was able to acquire the original letter that was sent, prior to editing. Here it is (note: it is very humorous how few changes were made, and how little time was taken, on this letter to capture its new tone):

Just as the owners have come together to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement, several concerned agents have also come together to discuss the status of our future earning potential. There are important negotiations taking place that will impact us. Because we are united in our concerns that we continue to earn our commissions and have our voices be heard throughout this process we have created this joint letter to our players.

This letter was prepared by the agencies and agents listed below, and is being sent to all of the players they represent:

Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group
Bill Duffy of BDA Sports
Dan Fegan of Lagardere Unlimited
Jeff Schwartz of Excel Sports Management
Leon Rose and Henry Thomas of Creative Artists Agency
Mark Bartelstein of Priority Sports and Entertainment

Dear Player,

I am writing to you because the negotiations between the NBPA and NBA owners are at a critical stage. You must take action and protect us.

Our Voice Must be Heard

Any deal you and the owners agree upon will have a major impact on us, our families, and our careers.

Educate yourself on the specifics of the negotiations and proposals that have been made.

Demand a full vote by all players on any proposed deal between the players and owners.

Contact the NBPA to ask questions and speak out about the issues that will directly impact us and our families.

 

PLEASE CLICK "READ MORE" TO CONTINUE...

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Let’s be honest – this summer has been pretty depressing. 

Months have gone by without a resolution between the NBA owners and players, and the prospect of losing games seems to be growing more likely by the day. 

If you’re interested in the specifics of the NBA Lockout struggle, I recommend this article written by Henry Abbott at TrueHoop. He talks about the specific sticking points in the current negotiations.

Frankly, my reaction to this whole lockout situation has been a bit bizarre, at least to the untrained eye.

Please click "Read More" to see why...

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65 year old Rick Adelman was introduced today, as the 11th coach in the 22 year history of the Minnesota Timberwolves organization. With his big money, four year $20 million contract, he should easily eclipse the two year average per Minnesota Timberwolves Head Coach (epic fail.)  At least we (presumably) have a coach who knows what he's doing, as Adelman comes into Minnesota with the eight most coaching wins all-time, standing at 945 wins to 616 losses, a winning percentage of .605.  His teams have made the playoffs 16 times in his 20 years of coaching, with only 3 losing seasons.  The T-Wolves, on the other hand, well... does anyone even remember what playoff basketball is like at Target Center?  Let's just move on. (P.S. GO LYNX!!!)

At his press conference today, Adelman said: "I see this as a great opportunity and a challenge.  I feel this is a chance to build something. You're not that far from turning things around here. I don't care what happened here before. There's no reason why we can't be better. The players have to believe that. They should believe that. Everything is here for this team to make strides." But is that what he was REALLY thinking?  No, of course not.  Please click "Read More" below, to see the transcript of an interview with Timberwolves PR Guru Jonah Ballow, which Adelman may or may not have personally sent me earlier today.  He was also even kind enough to include his own thoughts and notes about everything.*

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Click here

Sources close to the situation told HOOPSWORLD that Adelman is expected to reach a contract agreement with the Timberwolves next week.

 

Fingers crossed people! Would be a fantastic day for the organization!! But, as always, let's not get our hopes up. 

As it sounds from Jerry Z, Don Nelson would be the fall back option. Not a bad scenario at all. If either were hired, the only thing we could blame for lack of success would be our players.

More on this soon, but one of the last warm Saturdays awaits. Enjoy it.

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From Jerry Z

Timberwolves assistant general manager Tony Ronzone has left the organization.

Known for his international-scouting connections, he was hired in spring 2010 just about the time Fred Hoiberg was headed for Iowa State's head-coaching job and had a voice in personnel moves that included drafting Wes Johnson and Derrick Williams as well as trading away Al Jefferson, acquiring Michael Beasley and re-signing center Darko Milicic.

The Wolves, through a spokesman, said they and Ronzone mutually have agreed to part ways and wished him good luck.

This is interesting. However, it is nearly the weekend, so I'm not sure the time is right to bemoan the masses with an overdramatic conspiracy theory on how this is related to Adelman, his wife, Kahn's mole, or Kevin Love's uncle's 4th cousin's mistress. As of now, maybe the Wolves were not a good fit for him and he moved on. This happens in the NBA often. I'm thinking this should be thought of as mutually exclusive of the coaching search and any subsequent speculation theirein.

I will say this, though, to those who call this devastating. Ronzone, to me, appeared as a guy who liked international players almost to a fault. As of now Tony (who was often tabbed as "the 2nd Round Guy") made no draft pick (or perhaps trade) that netted the Wolves anyone that played a single minute for the team. He selected Paulo Prestes, Bjelica, and a 27 year old guy from God-knows-where. This is creative, but I ask those reading, where did Tony get his sterling reputation? By picking guys who will never, ever play for us, and if they do it will be in 2016? If this article were not written about him and posted on all Wolves websites all around when we hired him, would this even be a blip on the radar? What has Tony done other than visit Yao Ming's apartment in Shanghai and draft Jonas Jerebko while with Detroit? Draft Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony. That'd be about it. And allegedly push for Kanter over DWilliams. 

With that said, he seemed competent, so to that end he will be missed. Best of luck Tony! But to the fans, meh, this will impact nothing.

Have a great weekend.

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EXHIBIT 1:

 

EXHIBIT 2: Michael Beasley May Have Broken His Wrist

Luckily for us, he may just end up being OK. But seriously, could anything else go wrong for him this off-season?  Wait... don't answer that.

But really David $tern, what are you doing you greedy tyrant?  The NBA is (was?) at the peak of it's popularity, and yourself and the other crotchety old owners are holding out, in a not-so-blatant attempt to absolutely crush the Players Union? This "cash grab" by the Owners is really just sickening to me.  Yes, I realize the CBA is flawed and needs to be fixed, but the demands by the Owners are unreasonable and insulting.  I mean, really asking for billions of dollars from the players over the next decade?  NBA players are probably overpaid as a whole, but that is the CBA that was AGREED upon during the last negotiating sessions.  The players are asking for NOTHING more than the status quo, again, which was agreed upon by both parties. 

Dear readers can google articles to form their own opinions, or just go read everything in this thread.  Either way, it's pretty apparent what's going on here.

David $tern, this nonsense needs to end now.

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Zgoda reports

Great news! Report indicates Taylor will be in the interview as well. This basically all but implies he is willing to front the money needed to hire this superb coaching candidate.

This seems to explain the holdup, as Kahn is doing what it takes to convince Mr. Adelman to come to town. Would be a hard sell, but a worthwhile one. Hopefully more on this as it comes. 

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